Cargolux has outlined expectations of a volatile air cargo market for the rest of 2026 following the release of its 2025 results, which show improved revenues and profits despite lower volumes.
The Luxembourg-headquartered airline saw revenues in 2025 increase 2.5% year on year to $3.4bn, while profits after tax improved by 3.8% to $465m.
The increase came despite a 2.8% decline in volumes in 2025 to 1.1m tonnes and an 2.5% decline in block hours to 149,269. Meanwhile, the cargo load factor slipped by 1.2 percentage points to 65%.
Cargolux said that in 2025, the air cargo industry “navigated a challenging environment shaped by geopolitical tensions, trade wars, and airspace restrictions linked to conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine”.
“While sustained e‑commerce activity and niche segments supported demand, these volatile conditions placed increasing pressure on global logistics networks,” the airline said.
Cargolux explained that it had adjusted to fluctuating demand by optimising its network, including charters.
“The year highlighted both the industry’s fragility and its adaptability amid shifting trade routes and geopolitical influences,” the carrier said.
Cargolux pointed out that it had ended the year in tenth position in IATA’s top 20 cargo carriers by international scheduled freight tonne km.
Looking ahead, Cargolux said that making forecasts was a challenging exercise given the current volatile market conditions.
“As the past year has shown, forecasting in a highly volatile and globally interconnected industry remains challenging,” Cargolux said in a press release.
“Rapid geopolitical shifts and tariff threats can disrupt major air corridors, force rapid changes in trade routes and affect customer confidence.
“The escalation in the conflict in the Middle East has already impacted operations, driving jet fuel prices to historic highs and raising the risk of potential fuel shortages.”
Cargolux said the outlook for e-commerce volumes, which had been a key driver of demand in recent years, remains uncertain.
“In parallel, evolving geopolitical and regulatory developments, including tariff measures and handling fees on low value e-commerce parcels, are anticipated to weigh on international trade activity,” it added.
“Air carriers, especially those based in Europe, are also subjected to increasing environmental and other reporting and compliance requirements,” Cargolux said.
“It is vital that authorities and industry stakeholders recognise these challenges to find suitable solutions and ensure a level playing field for EU carriers versus its global competitors.”
