The Middle East conflict resulted in a year-on-year fall in air cargo demand and capacity in March, while the post–Lunar New Year trade slowdown also affected business.
Data from IATA showed total demand, measured in cargo tonne-kilometers (CTK), fell by 4.8% compared to March 2025 levels.
Capacity, measured in available cargo tonne-kms (ACTK), decreased by 4.7% compared to March 2025.
However, the cargo load factor (CLF) remained stable at 47.9%.
Earlier this month, Xeneta reported that global air cargo demand fell 3% year-on-year in March, while capacity supply was 6% lower year on year.
“Industry-wide cargo-tonne-kilometers declined by 4.8% year-on-year, reflecting one of the most complex
operating environments in recent years,” commented the trade body.
“March was shaped by overlapping Chinese New Year distortions, escalating geopolitical instability in the Middle East, and higher fuel costs, all of which disrupted established traffic patterns.”
Jet fuel rose 106.6% year on year, reaching its highest level in more than 23 years. This pushed “cargo yields up 18.9% in a distinctly inflationary pricing environment” said IATA.
“Air cargo demand fell 4.8% in March compared to the previous year. This was mostly due to severe disruptions at major Gulf hubs due to war in the Middle East,” reflected Willie Walsh, IATA’s director general.
“The timing of the usual post–Lunar New Year slowdown also added to the decline. The underlying demand trends, at this point, appear strong and the recent World Trade Organization and International Monetary Fund revisions to trade and GDP projections continue to see growth in 2026.
“Importantly, air cargo networks are providing the flexibility needed to support global supply chains as they adjust to geopolitical, tariff, and operational strains. All eyes are on fuel supply and price, which are expected to test the industry’s resilience in the coming months.”
General trade conditions looked positive. Global industrial production grew by 3.1% year on year in February, marking the 38th consecutive month of expansion, and global goods trade rose by 8%.
Global manufacturing sentiment remained in growth territory in March, easing slightly from February. The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) stood at 51.4.
The PMI for new export orders was 50.1—both above the 50-point expansion threshold—signalling positive conditions for air cargo demand, said IATA.
There were no surprises in the regional performance of airlines. Middle Eastern carriers saw a 54.3% year-on-year decrease in demand for air cargo in March, the weakest performance of all regions.
Capacity also decreased by 52.4%. Most other regions saw increases in demand, apart from North America.
Leading the regions for growth was Africa, where airlines saw a 7% increase in demand, while capacity decreased by 4.6%.
Demand for Asia Pacific airlines was up 5.4%, and capacity increased by 5%.
European carriers saw a 2.2% demand increase, while capacity increased by 4.2%.
Latin American and Caribbean carriers also saw a 1.8% demand increase. Capacity increased by 5.1%.
But North American carriers saw a 1.2% decrease in demand. Capacity also decreased by 1.1%.
Air cargo performance diverged across major trade lanes in March. Africa-Asia led growth followed by Asia–Europe, with intra-Asia also holding strong on regional trade.
In contrast, Gulf-linked corridors were severely disrupted by the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.
