Booming volumes of semiconductors combined with the Middle East crisis have pushed aircraft cargo utilisation levels on the transpacific trade to their maximum, according to data provider Xeneta.
Figures from Xeneta show that the dynamic load factor – taking into account space and weight – on services from Asia Pacific to North America currently stands at 90%.
Speaking on a Xeneta/Tiaca webinar, the firm’s chief airfreight officer, Niall van de Wouw, said this is a “near-practical maximum” given that not every flight on the routes is optimised for cargo.
While the high utilisation levels are in part driven by the Middle East crisis, the growth of hyperscaler and semiconductor-related demand has been a major growth driver.
Global semiconductor revenue grew 106% year on year in early 2026, and the correlation with transpacific air freight rates is direct, Xeneta explained.
In May 2026, air cargo rates from Taiwan to the US were running at $7.02 per kg, up 24% year on year. From China to the US, rates reached $5.86 per kg, up 46%. Malaysia to the US was at $6.69 per kg, up 36%.
The companies moving this cargo are operating in an environment where the competitive stakes of receiving components quickly outweigh the cost of freight.
Van de Wouw explained that the companies moving this cargo are operating in an environment where the competitive stakes of receiving components quickly outweigh the cost of freight.
“Whether they pay five, six or seven dollars a kilo is largely secondary to receiving the infrastructure they need to build data centres and deploy AI applications as fast as possible,” van de Wouw said.
Xeneta added that semiconductor demand had replaced e-commerce volumes as the key growth driver for air cargo.
The data firm pointed to figures showing that China’s B2C cross-border e-commerce exports fell 11% year on year in April 2026 in aggregate, with exports to the US down 33% and exports to Europe down 6%.
This comes after the US scrapped its de minimis exemption for small parcels last year. The European Union is following suit from July with a €3 charge, although it is expected that this will have less of an impact than the US move last year.
“The expectation of a significant downward correction in rates that had been built into the fourth quarter 2025 outlook has been overtaken by the disruption of the first half of the year, making a full-year decline in rates now unlikely,” Xeneta said. “A traditional third/fourth quarter peak season driven by e-commerce is not expected.”
