TOKYO — SpaceX launched the latest in its Transporter series of rideshare missions July 7 as industry concerns about the program’s future reach what one rival company executive called a panic.
A Falcon 9 lifted off from Vandenberg Space Force Base in California at 3:12 a.m. Eastern on the Transporter-17 mission to sun-synchronous orbit. The mission carried 81 payloads, according to SpaceX, including hosted payloads as well as spacecraft carried on orbital transfer vehicles to be deployed later.
The mission was anchored by CAS500-4, a 514-kilogram South Korean imaging satellite that will be used for agricultural and forestry applications. Another Falcon 9 launched a related spacecraft, CAS500-2, on a rideshare mission in May.
Like other Transporter missions, this launch carried a mix of new and returning customers, including those building out or refreshing constellations. Iceye had four radar-imaging satellites on the mission, while Spire had 10 of its Lemur satellites on the launch. Axelspace, a Japanese Earth observation company, flew seven of its GRUS-3 medium-resolution imaging spacecraft on the mission.
These and other companies have relied heavily on SpaceX rideshare missions for low-cost access to space on a regular schedule. However, there are growing concerns within the industry that SpaceX is winding down this program, at least using its workhorse Falcon 9 rocket.
In recent weeks, several partners and customers of those rideshare missions said SpaceX is not accepting Transporter reservations beyond late 2028 or early 2029. They added the missions on the manifest until then are nearly full. That has led companies like Exolaunch and SEOPS, which have arranged launches on Transporter missions, to buy their own Falcon 9 rideshare launches.
SpaceX has not commented on those claims, and its webcast for the Transporter-17 launch did not discuss any changes to the rideshare program. “Rideshare missions like today’s significantly increase access to space for small satellite operators around the world, and we’re excited to be able to offer these launch opportunities for SpaceX customers,” one of the webcast hosts said.
However, an executive with a competing launch provider has heard similar worries about the availability of SpaceX rideshare launches.
“There’s been a lot of concern about Transporter missions and whether those are going to continue to be made available,” Adam Spice, chief financial officer of Rocket Lab, said during a fireside chat at the Spacetide conference here July 7.
That extends, he added, to the availability of the Falcon 9 itself. SpaceX officials said last year they were near the peak of Falcon 9 launch activity and expected the number of launches to start to decline as the company ramps up Starship, its fully reusable heavy-lift vehicle.
“In the last three to six months, the term I would use to describe customer conversations about access to Falcon 9 would be anxiety. There seems to be a panic setting in,” Spice said. “There’s not as much conviction that Falcon 9 is going to be available for the merchant market out beyond what they’ve committed to the manifest.”
He said he expects SpaceX to focus Falcon 9 more on its own internal customers, including Starlink and its future orbital data center system. “When you look at the ambitious plans for SpaceX, their internal consumption is probably the most compelling opportunity for them. They would much rather take another Starlink or data center satellite up into orbit than take anybody else’s stuff up.”
That has factored into planning for Rocket Lab’s Neutron medium-lift rocket, he said, including customers seeking “longer-term” deals and block buys of launches to guarantee access to space.
“As much as it’s been a constrained environment over the last several years, which has led to the opportunity for Neutron, I think it’s getting harder, not easier, for people to secure launch,” Spice said. “We’ve probably only seen the tip of the iceberg.”
