DHL Forwarding: Market wide growth hides air cargo pressure points

The overall growth in air cargo demand registered so far this year risks creating a misleading picture of performance on individual trade lanes, according to DHL Global Forwarding’s head of airfreight.

Writing in an online column, Henk Venema, executive vice president, global airfreight, DHL Global Forwarding, urged customers not to use the global air cargo growth average as a proxy for the corridor that matters most to their supply chain.

“The pressure points sit on specific lanes, and those are likely to remain uneven into 2027,” he said.

Venema pointed out that overall global air cargo traffic grew by 5% year on year in the first eight months of the year, according to IATA.

However, certain trade lanes had seen demand soar, putting pressure on capacity as the industry heads into the peak season. Others had seen demand tumble.

Venema said that IATA stats show that in August, cargo volumes from Asia to North America were up 15% year on year and Asia to Latin America 23%. In contrast, Asia to Europe fell 8%.

The growth on Asia-North America is driven by AI-related demand, while Asia-Europe volumes are suffering as a result of the European Union’s e-commerce import charge. Asia to Latin American volumes, in contrast, are fuelled by e-commerce.

In response, freighter operators have shifted Asia-Europe capacity to Asia-US and Asia-Latin America lanes.

“Carriers choose where to deploy freighters, and the choice usually defaults to the Southeast Asia to US trade,” he says.

He adds: “The pressure is particularly concentrated on routes from Vietnam, Thailand and Taiwan to the US. I expect that demand to continue into 2027, making these Asian export routes a key capacity issue for shippers.”

Venema points to statistics showing that approximately 17m metric tons have been moved by air year to date; high-tech cargo accounted for 3m metric tons and grew 22%. Chinese e-commerce represented 2.9m metric tons and remained flat, with other general cargo accounting for the remaining 11.2m metric tons.

For shippers, resilience increasingly means understanding where pressure points are and having alternatives ready before disruption hits, says Venema.

Capacity outlook

Venema added that freighter capacity shortages on certain trade lanes were likely to continue in the future.

“Around 20 freighters are expected for delivery on the world market in 2027, with most going to express delivery companies rather than traditional cargo airlines,” he said.

“Older aircraft will also continue to leave the fleet. Therefore, dedicated freighter capacity is likely to remain in high demand and limited supply for the next several years.

“I also expect more partnerships between Middle Eastern and Asian airlines seeking ways to participate in the transpacific market within existing traffic-right constraints.”

Meanwhile, passenger aircraft additions do not necessarily help the cargo market, as they aren’t always deployed on routes where demand is highest and can’t carry certain types of cargo.