Airfreight rates in January declined in January as the industry entered a quieter period, but at a faster rate than could have been expected given reports of a buoyant start to the year.
According to data provider TAC Index, airfreight rates – a combination of both spot and contract prices – in January declined by 19.3% over the four weeks to 26 January and were down 6.1% compared with a year earlier.
While rates usually decline in the opening weeks of the year following the December peak season, TAC Index editor Neil Wilson said the depth of the decline was “slightly surprising given reports about the continuing resilience of demand and constraints on airfreight capacity”.
Wilson added that several one-off factors had affected the market in January, including the closure of airspace over Iran; weather events in North America; and congestion, cancellations and delays to flights across Asia.
“Some market participants were also on alert because of trends in ocean shipping rates, which rose higher and earlier than usual in January ahead of the so-called ‘mini peak’ before Chinese New Year, leading some to anticipate a similar effect on airfreight rates,” said Wilson.
One factor that may have impacted the market is the Lunar New Year holiday being two weeks later in 2026 than a year ago.
The mini-peak and associated spike in rates would have therefore occurred two weeks earlier in 2025.
“There were some signs that this bounce could have happened in the final week of January, with the [overall] index gaining 4.1% over the week to 2 February, cutting its four-week decline to only 2.2% and the year-on-year decline to 3%.
“Nevertheless, spot rates out of Hong Kong fell steadily through January, both to Europe and the US, before starting to firm up again towards month-end,” he said.
“So the short-term outlook for rates ahead of Lunar New Year may not look quite so bullish as some anticipated, but still pretty firm,” said Wilson. “Meanwhile, the medium to longer-term outlook for the market continues to look pretty tight.”
