AI air cargo growth moderation expected

Demand growth for AI-related shipments is starting to slow down despite continued investment in the sector, according to Rotate.

Speaking at the Air Cargo Forum in Miami, Ryan Keyrouse, chief executive of the air cargo consultancy and data firm, said that cloud computing exports from Asia Pacific tripled in 2025. However, demand and growth have since slowed and normalised.

Monthly demand growth for this vertical began steadily rising in January 2025 and peaked at around 10% in the middle of last year but has since slowed.

Meanwhile, total monthly cloud computing volumes peaked at just under 100,000 tonnes in April 2026, but as of August, the monthly total had fallen to around 85,000 tonnes.

Kerouse said that there is a strong correlation between AI investment and air cargo volumes, but he questioned whether the recent slowdown in AI-related air cargo volumes means this correlation is beginning to weaken.

Research presented by Roate shows that worldwide AI spend will hit $2.7trn this year and $3.6trn in 2027.

“While there is this incredible rise (in AI cargo volumes), it is flattening out. The key question is what will happen next year. Spend correlates quite well with tonnage. Next year we’re expected to invest more in CAPEX,” said Keyrouse.

Keyrouse added: “It’s interesting, the dynamic where (AI) has been growing and slowing down, and investments in CAPEX were there, which would suggest continued growth. The real question is, will it continue?”

He added: “This conflicts with the data which shows AI-related cargo slowing down and plateauing, though.”

There is good reason to be concerned about the growth sustainability of AI cargo, he said.

Keyrouse said several people in the air cargo industry had raised whether “regulatory, capacity and energy issues” would contribute to a slowdown in the AI-market.

While these question marks hang over the market, a survey carried out by Rotate shows that overall, the air cargo market remains positive for the outlook of AI-related volumes, even if the rate of growth does come down.

Keyrouse said: “The majority of air cargo professionals believe that it will continue growing but it will be much more moderate than it has been.”

Rotate is also looking into where AI is growing. The majority of AI shipments out of Asia have been flown to the US, with the remainder spread evenly to the rest of the world.

Production and transit hubs now include Singapore and Mexico, and data centre markets include India, Malaysia and Thailand.

The next emerging AI-related region could be the Middle East as there are plans to open the “Stargate UAE” AI data centre, stated Keyrouse.

Keyrouse added that cloud and AI, including cloud computing, computers and parts, and semiconductors, accounted for 33% of air cargo demand growth in January to July this year compared to the same period in 2024.