Cirium Ascend Consultancy has released its latest helicopter demand forecast which covers the years 2026 to 2035 and predict a demand for 7,640 civil turbine aircraft valued at USD56 billion in the period with the consultant’s Senior Aviation Analyst, Lead Appraiser – Helicopters & AAM, Sara Dahariwal pointing to the the industry’s steady growth over the last 10 years noting that the world fleet grew from around 21,600 in 2016 to 2025 maintaining growth with that was maintained growth maintained in every year despite the pandemic as well as commercial factors like the downturn in the oil and gas industry in the late teens. Underscoring the industry’s resilience.
Consequently, the global fleet is projected to expand at compound average growth rate (CAGE) of around 1.4% annually, consistent with the trend observed over the previous decade. In terms of growth versus replacement the Cirium says that its forecast made last year where 53% of new aircraft will be for fleet replacement with the remaining 47% targeted for growth is unchanged.
In terms of deliveries, the focus will continue to be on Light Single-engine types which are forecast to take 53% of deliveries, sustained by sub USD 2m aircraft principally the Bell 505 and Robinson R66 and the workhorse H125. Although the market in terms of order value the expectation is that medium twins notably the H160 and AW139 will garner 30% of market value. Although the impact of new entrants entering the market during the period including the AW09 and R88 as well has the long awaited Bell 525 is yet to be defined.
By manufacturer, Cirium expect Airbus to garner 47% of delivery value, ahead of Leonardo at 29% and Bell at 16%.
Commenting on the report Dahariwal said “The helicopter market’s defining characteristic over the past decade has been resilience, and there is little in the current outlook to suggest that will change. The coming years are expected to be characterised by steady, replacement-led demand rather than transformational growth, with success hinging on the industry’s ability to translate a large and ageing installed base into fleet renewal. For OEMs, financiers and lessors alike, the opportunity lies not in creating demand, but in unlocking it”.
Image: Cirium
