Air cargo demand soared in February, but the start of the Middle East conflict at the end of the month means industry prospects for the rest of the year are shrouded in uncertainty.
Total demand, measured in cargo tonne km (CTK), rose by 11.2% compared to February 2025 levels, data from IATA has revealed.
The trade body said the industry had benefited from increased business before the Lunar New Year holiday, which fell in mid-February this year.
“February benefited from post year-end normalisation after the December holidays, pre-Lunar New Year
shipments, and steady Asia-linked flows with the Lunar New Year providing a notable short-term boost.”
However, IATA also stressed that the disruption to air cargo operations and increased fuel costs as a result of the Middle East conflict make future results difficult to predict.
“Air cargo demand grew 11.2% in February. Even considering the boost that February received from the movement of goods ahead of Lunar New Year, the month showed strong growth,” said Willie Walsh, IATA’s director general.
“The outbreak of war in the Middle East at the end of the month, however, makes it difficult to see how full-year performance will unfold.
“Sharply rising fuel costs, fuel scarcity in parts of the world, and the severe disruption to key cargo hubs in the Gulf are major shifts.
“While air cargo has repeatedly proven its resilience in the face of disruption, an early resolution of the war along with a normalisation of fuel supply and costs would be in everybody’s interest.”
Capacity, measured in available cargo tonne km (ACTK), increased by 8.5% year on year. Meanwhile, the industry cargo load factor (CLF) increased to 46%, up 1.1 ppt compared to February last year.
Overall, there have been strong economic conditions for the industry recently, found IATA. In January, the global goods trade grew by 5.2% year on year.
Then, global manufacturing sentiment strengthened in February, with the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rising to 53.1, remaining above the 50-point expansion threshold.
The PMI for new export orders rose to 51.4, above the growth threshold and the highest level since July 2021, indicating positive conditions for air cargo demand.
However, jet fuel prices rose 1.2%, while a widening Brent–jet fuel crack spread highlighted continued volatility in refining margins.
Regional performance
Airfreight volumes in February increased across all major trade lanes. Looking at specific regions, African airlines saw the strongest rise in demand, while Latin American and Caribbean carriers had the weakest performance of all regions.
African airlines had a 21% year-on-year increase in demand for air cargo and capacity increased by 17.3% year on year.
Middle Eastern carriers also performed well, with a 16.5% demand increase, plus a 13.5% capacity increase.
Likewise, Asia Pacific airlines achieved 13.6% demand growth and a capacity increase of 10.1%.
North American carriers recorded a 9.4% increase, while capacity increased 5.3%.
European carriers saw a 6.9% demand increase, alongside a capacity increase of 6.1%.
Finally, demand for Latin American and Caribbean carriers increased just 0.7%. Capacity increased by 4.5%.
