The air cargo sector could benefit from shippers switching from congested ocean transport to air in the fourth quarter, plus further shifts once there is more clarity on tariffs, Dimerco has predicted in its October Asia Pacific Freight Report.
The Taiwanese freight forwarder said that persistent ocean congestion could result in more interest in air cargo as the fourth quarter progresses.
It explained ocean shipping has faced supply chain disruption and demand has not slowed as quickly as expected, meaning the peak of the quarter has been prolonged and shippers looking for capacity and speed could turn to air.
Dimerco also pointed out that China-US shipments held back because of uncertainty around tariffs will be released once the situation becomes clearer.
Due to time constraints, some of these shipments that were intended for ocean transportation may be sent by air instead, tightening capacity further.
“Dimerco expects clearer tariff direction and persistent ocean congestion to potentially push
more cargo into air as Q4 progresses,” said the company.
“Bookings look quiet right now, but that’s the calm before the door opens. Once held-back China-US cargo releases and ocean congestion pushes shippers into air, the space will face some constraints,” observed Kathy Liu, vice president, global sales and marketing at Dimerco Express Group.
At the same time, AI, semiconductor and year-end retail demand are continuing to push up demand and keep capacity tight in many origins, and in particular, airfreight remains tight across several Northeast Asian markets.
Taiwan continues to see strong demand for AI servers, semiconductors, high-performance computing equipment and electronic components, keeping rates under upward pressure to the US and across intra-Asia lanes, said Dimerco.
South Korea is also seeing tighter conditions around the Korean harvest festival “Chuseok”, with some Southeast Asia services from Incheon requiring bookings up to two weeks in advance.
Conditions in China are more mixed. Pre-holiday and e-commerce activity is tightening some regional routes, while US and Europe capacity remains more balanced in several origins.
Across Southeast Asia, India and Australia, air capacity to the US remains tight from most origins. Singapore faces backlog conditions, Thailand is dealing with capacity reductions and flooding-related delays at Bangkok, while India is entering its festive season with both air and ocean space constrained to Europe and the US.
