The air cargo industry is preparing for the post-Golden Week peak season but demand is expected to develop unevenly depending on origin and cargo type, according to freight forwarder CH Robinson.
In a market update, the US forwarder said that volumes will rebound in the coming week as factories re-open following the Golden Week holiday, with technology-related demand, such as servers, semiconductors and other electronics, remaining one of the strongest demand drivers across the transpacific.
“New consumer-device launches are adding another layer of time-sensitive cargo, while general freight is expected to increase more gradually as manufacturers and retailers bring in inventory ahead of early Black Friday sales, Cyber Monday, and year-end demand,” the forwarder said.
However, e-commerce, which has in the past few years been one of the major drivers of air cargo demand, is predicted to play a smaller role in the peak season as a result of tariff changes in the US and Europe.
If carriers adjust their schedules to capitalise on the growing tech demand to the US, this could leave shippers with goods going to Europe with fewer options, especially if they require freighter aircraft rather than bellyhold, the forwarder explained.
“Airlines often respond to concentrated demand by adjusting aircraft deployment, schedules, and allocations toward lanes where booking activity is strongest,” CH Robinson explained.
“If more freighter capacity is directed toward US-bound services, shippers moving freight to Europe or within Asia may see fewer workable options even when demand on those lanes has not increased significantly.”
The forwarder added that passenger belly space can accommodate a large share of general freight, but it does not replace freighters for every commodity.
Asia-origin pricing could firm more noticeably from mid-October, particularly on transpacific lanes with high concentrations of technology and new-product freight, the company explained.
However, demand levels will vary between gateways.
“Asia Pacific-to-US demand was already running 17% above last year in mid-September, with several technology-heavy origins showing stronger gains,” it said.
“Conditions will vary by origin as cargo mix, gateway demand, airline allocations, and freighter schedules shape available capacity.”
Another factor that may impact the peak season is typhoon season, while modal transfer from ocean due to disruption to container shipping operations has also affected the market in recent years.
“If the flow of general cargo remains measured and post-holiday demand is concentrated mainly in technology and time-sensitive freight, booking limitations are more likely to remain origin- and departure-specific rather than spreading broadly across Asia.”
The forwarder added that the Asia–Europe trade is less broadly pressured than the transpacific, even though individual technology-heavy origins may tighten.
“China, Southeast Asia, and India should therefore be evaluated separately. Local cargo mix, aircraft type, gateway performance, and airline schedules can produce very different booking conditions from one origin to another.”
