Global airfreight volumes were up again in September and continued to outpace the increase in capacity, but shippers appear reluctant to commit to longer-term capacity deals, according to Xeneta.
The analyst said that global airfreight volumes delivered another month of steady growth in September, up 6% year-on-year, continuing the upward trend seen in August and July, when volumes rose 6% and 5%.
Volume growth in September continued to outpace the increase in capacity, which rose 2% versus a year ago after flatlining in July and August. This contributed to a two percentage points increase in Xeneta’s dynamic load factor to 62%.
Sustained demand has slowed anticipated rate reductions. Global air cargo spot rates averaged out as 27% higher than the same month last year.
Rates edged up 2% month-on-month, consistent with the usual seasonal firming at the end of the third quarter and as jet fuel prices climbed due to continuing tensions in the Middle East to roughly double their pre-conflict level.
Alongside airfreight volumes outpacing capacity, Xeneta found most shippers were seeking short-term capacity contracts.
Analysis of new contracts valid starting from the third quarter of this year shows 60% were for three months or less, compared with 25% in the third quarter of 2025 and 47% in the second quarter of this year.
Three-month agreements alone accounted for 42% of new contracts, up from 16% a year earlier, while the share of 12-month contracts fell from 40% to 25%. Contracts of more than 12 months have all but disappeared, at 3%.
Xeneta’s chief airfreight officer, Niall van de Wouw, said shippers are increasingly looking for ‘floating mechanisms’ with a base rate that’s adjusted depending on what’s happening in the marketplace.
“There is a high degree of realism in the way shippers are approaching the market,” he said. “There remains a lot of instability and that’s making it almost impossible for shippers to make long-term capacity deals without having T&Cs in place to deal with these volatile conditions.
“A one-year fixed rate deal doesn’t fit the current conditions. Shippers are looking to build mechanisms which add flexibility to their commercial relationships with forwarders, and which will help to ensure they hold across the year.
“A one-year deal without any adjustment mechanism is becoming more the exception than the rule. If they do exist, not many will survive the upcoming 12 months.”
E-commerce insights
Xeneta’s analysis showed China–Europe e-commerce exports are still falling following the EU’s removal of the de minimis exemption for low-value parcels on 1 July, while China–US e-commerce exports have rebounded.
China’s low-value and e-commerce exports to Europe fell again in August, down 40% year on year, according to Xeneta and Trade and Transport Group analysis of the latest China Customs data. This was a steeper decline than July’s 25% drop as the EU’s €3 per item customs duty continues to bite.
E-commerce exports to the US, by contrast, were 17% higher year on year in August, continuing their recovery from the removal of the US de minimis threshold in 2025, albeit from a lowered base.
The divergence is showing up in freight rates. The gap between China–US and China–Europe air spot rates has widened since the EU duty took effect. Even so, China to Western Europe spot rates rebounded 10% month on month in September to $4.26 per kg, reversing the 6% decline in August and the 22% fall in July, as outbound China demand picked up in the weeks running into Golden Week.
As anticipated, most major corridors saw spot rates rise month-on-month in September after the summer decline. Northeast Asia to Europe rose 5% to $4.74 per kg, Northeast Asia to North America was also up 5% to $6.03 per kg, while Southeast Asia to Europe rose 3%.
Transatlantic rates firmed in both directions, with Europe to North America up 2% and North America to Europe up 4% in September compared to August. The only corridors to soften were North America to Southeast Asia, down 1% and Europe to Southeast Asia, down 2%.
Compared with late February, before the escalation of the Iran war, spot rates into the Middle East remain the most elevated: up 91% from South Asia and up 80% from Europe in week 39 (21–27 September).
Northeast Asia and Southeast Asia to North America stood 34% and 29% above late-February levels respectively, supported by e-commerce demand recovery and AI-related shipments.
Europe to North America remained the exception at 20% below late-February levels, though that gap has narrowed from down 25% in August as summer belly capacity gradually comes out of the market.
Change needed
While acknowledging a global airfreight market on track for around 4% year-on-year demand growth in 2026 will surpass many industry observers’ expectations at the start of the year, van de Wouw expects shippers to hold out for what they see as a fairer way to manage market changes.
This, he says, is also reflected in more shippers aligning with Xeneta to increase their visibility of airfreight pricing.
“The high percentage of short-term, 3-month deals we are recording is one of the current mechanisms shippers are using while they take time to negotiate what they see as a fairer way to buy capacity. Our position is that this should be based on the all-in rates airlines are charging freight forwarders, which we see as a better floating mechanism than a blunt fuel surcharge,” he said.
In the meantime, van de Wouw expects ‘more of the same’ for global air cargo to the end of the year.
“October is under way and we not picking up signals of a strong peak season from our shipper and forwarder community. What will happen in Q4 is too early to call, but the indicators currently point towards a muted final quarter of the year, as outlined in Xeneta’s mid-year outlook,” van de Wouw added.
One wildcard, he said, is on the water. Ocean schedule reliability has never recovered to pre-pandemic levels, and renewed Red Sea disruption, compounded by port congestion delaying container releases, has pushed Asia to US West Coast ocean rates back towards pandemic-era highs.
“When ocean becomes this unreliable and this expensive, some volume moves to air. We are not yet seeing that in the September data, and it doesn’t change our view of a muted peak season, but it is the factor we are watching most closely,” van de Wouw said.
Shifting trade policy, such as the recent partial easing of China–US tariffs, adds a further layer of uncertainty, though the market has so far absorbed such changes without a visible break in trend.
