The tentative peace framework reached between the US and Iran has been welcomed by forwarders, but a return to pre-war operations and fuel prices could take time.
The framework agreement is set to be signed in Geneva on Friday and should see the opening of the Strait of Hormuz, an essential artery for the transport of oil that has been closed since the start of fighting in February.
The closure has massively pushed up jet fuel prices while the fighting itself has resulted in supply chains shifting away from the Middle East, although operations have been returning since airspace reopened.
Rotate data shows that airfreight capacity between the Middle East and Europe was last week down around 20% compared with a year earlier, while from Asia to the Middle East there was a 4% decline compared with a year ago.
The higher fuel prices have also added to pressure on consumer spending, contributing to the rising cost of living.
Responding to the news, the US Airforwarders Association (AfA) cautiously welcomed the reported peace framework, which it said could help ease pressure on consumers and businesses in the US, and the wider global economy.
However, it warned a lot could still change by Friday.
“The airfreight industry now needs clarity on how the Strait of Hormuz will reopen and free passage will be enforced,” the AfA said.
“Freight forwarders and the wider air cargo sector have worked tirelessly to protect supply chain resilience, keep time-critical goods moving, and respond to fast-changing operating conditions.
“Recent events have again shown that air cargo is not only a commercial service, but an essential part of economic stability, emergency response, and national resilience.
“US forwarders have faced sustained disruption and uncertainty from government shutdowns, tariffs, and conflict in the Middle East.
“Our industry now needs certainty, stability, and a return to predictable trade policy, so businesses can plan, invest, and move goods with confidence.”
US president Donald Trump has claimed on social media that oil tankers are already starting to move out of the Strait of Hormuz, although reports suggest shipping companies will wait for the deal to be signed and mines removed before operations restart at scale.
