The problem according to Todd O’Hara, TracPlus’ CEO, is not a lack of data but a means to interpret it holistically in order to make the right tactical decisions “When we talk to customers, not one of them says they need more data. What they need is insight from the data they already have, and that is what we do. They are not short of information; they are short of a partner to help them make sense of it, wherever they operate. We have spent years taking messy data and adding enough context that it means something. This is that same idea pointed at risk: take various disparate data sources and turn it into one picture a person can act on.”
The model divides a region into a fine grid and scores each cell for wildfire risk on a scale of zero to 10. It then ass in what’s at stake in an area, its structures and infrastructure, and then tops it off with live and forecast conditions: weather, vegetation dryness, and fuel. The company says that the modelling is really only and extension of the work it is already doing fusing aircraft telemetry and suppression data from a variety of sources including satellite, cellular, ADS-B, and onboard additional telemetry units into one operational feed at national scale. The risk model extends that same proprietary fusion algorithm to a broader set of environmental and operational data.
The live position of the response fleet is also drawn into the model, to show where aircraft can reach in time, so risk sits alongside the ability to respond to it. High-risk ground that is well covered is distinguished from high-risk ground that no aircraft can reach quickly. The view is intended to support decisions made before a fire starts, such as where to position aircraft. The model informs those decisions. It does not make them, and it does not simulate a specific deployment.
In the first demonstration, the model segments California into more than 10,000 cells, each about 14 square miles. That is roughly 180 times finer than a county-level index, so risk shows as a local picture rather than a single figure for a whole county.
O’Hara,concludes. “Aerial firefighting is difficult and dangerous, and the reason we obsess over this data is a simple one. It is to give the people in the aircraft and on the ground the clearest possible picture, so they can make the safer call before they are ever in a marginal position. Effectiveness is not about pushing harder; it is about better decisions made earlier. That is what makes the work more effective, more efficient, and safer.”
Image: TracPlus
